PHOENIX IS CLIMBING THE CHARTS

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The median home value in is $203,400. That’s an increase of 6.5% over the past year. The average price of homes that are currently listed in is $259,900. The average price of homes that have sold was $224,262. Average rent price is $1,600Most expensive home sold in November 2017 was sold for $3,200,000.

Cromford Daily Observation - The S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® report that was released on Tuesday covers sales between July and September. The month to month movement in the HPI was as follows:

  1. Las Vegas 0.97%
  2. New York 0.89%
  3. Tampa 0.88%
  4. Cleveland 0.68%
  5. Phoenix 0.59%
  6. Miami 0.59%
  7. San Francisco 0.51%
  8. San Diego 0.46%
  9. Los Angeles 0.42%
  10. Boston 0.42%
  11. Dallas 0.39%
  12. Charlotte 0.28%
  13. Denver 0.24%
  14. Portland 0.17%
  15. Atlanta 0.16%
  16. Chicago 0.05%
  17. Minneapolis 0.01%
  18. Detroit -0.13%
  19. Washington -0.21%
  20. Seattle 0.28%

Phoenix was well ahead of the national average of 0.35% and now appears in the top 5 of the 20 major cities reported by Case-Shiller.

The longer-term trends, represented by the annual change in the index, was as follows:

  1. Seattle 12.9%
  2. Las Vegas 9.0%
  3. San Diego 8.2%
  4. Portland 7.3%
  5. Tampa 7.2%
  6. Boston 7.2%
  7. Dallas 7.2%
  8. Denver 7.2%
  9. San Francisco 7.0%
  10. Detroit 6.9%
  11. Charlotte 6.2%
  12. Los Angeles 6.2%
  13. Phoenix 6.1%
  14. Cleveland 5.4%
  15. Minneapolis 5.4%
  16. Atlanta 5.4%
  17. New York 5.2%
  18. Miami 5.0%
  19. Chicago 3.9%
  20. Washington 3.1%

In this table, we are only 13th out of 20 and roughly in line with the national average.

Las Vegas stands out as being at number 1 and 2 in these tables while Seattle jumps out for being top of the long-term but bottom of the short-term table.

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Mike B Commentary: The long term Phoenix trend of 6.1% is just above the half century long Maricopa County average of around 5%.

Good to be trending consistent with the long term trend in terms of volatility. For example, Seattle, by contrast is at the top of the long term trend, but now at the bottom of the short term trend. 

Hyper appreciation is of course, not sustainable. So again, steady….normal = good:) 

One understandable concern for buyers is that the rapid rate of the ‘recovery’ may be setting up another crash.

While we don’t have a crystal ball you can site the following key points:

  1. The crash we saw in 2008 is historically a once-in-a-generation event.
  2. It was caused in no small part by ‘liar loans’ (The Big Easy film) that created a feeding frenzy with no equity.
  3. By contrast, today lending standards are relatively tight making it an equity market (buyers must have skin in the game)…and btw, the distressed properties of the past were mostly absorbed with cash purchases.
  4. There’s now a housing shortage, particularly at the lower end, as builders were essentially offline for about 5 years building only a fraction of the homes needed to accommodate the 1 million new households created in the U.S. every year. It will take time to catch up.
  5. And now we learn that the current dominant millennial generation will be receiving the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world – some 26 trillion. They are quickly becoming the new affluent (see attached). 
  6. Locally, Arizona is well positioned as a popular sun destination state with a growing economy, attractive lifestyle choices statewide and less volatile environment than the large coastal cities. People want to live here…and as local economist Elliot Pollack has said, ‘jobs follow people’!

For your success,

Mike

As premier agents in the Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley area, we pride ourselves on providing luxury service to all our clients. Whether you are ready to sell or buy, call us at 480.315.1575, or email us at info@pellegrini.com. Check out our listings and other information on our website:http://www.pellegrini.com/.